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April 21, 2014

Good morning folks,

"It's hard to defend," said MSNBC's Mika Brzezinski of the Administration's latest Keystone Pipeline delay. It was another blatantly political Friday afternoon news dump by the Obama White House that was bad policy, bad for jobs, bad for American competitiveness and energy development... but very good for Democratic billionaire mega donor Tom Steyer (the benefactor to whom Harry Reid rented the Senate floor last month). 

Over on the National Review, Tom Rogan writes,  "The White House has spent years sending Keystone XL through the paperwork wringer. Still, the motivation for this latest deferral is obvious. It’s a midterm-election payoff, intended specifically for Tom Steyer, a retired hedge-fund manager who has pledged to raise $100 million for anti-Keystone candidates. In short, facing the prospect of a Republican Senate, Obama has decided that governance can wait until November."

Wall Street Journal editorial picks up on that theme, noting, "The real reason for the delay is Democratic politics. ...The hedge-fund politico has pledged to raise $100 million to help Democrats keep the Senate, and on Friday he received a major return on his investment when the State Department again delayed its decision on the Keystone XL pipeline. Mr. Steyer and the party's liberal financiers are climate-change absolutists who have made killing Keystone a non-negotiable demand. But the White House doesn't want to reject the pipeline before November because several Senate Democrats running for re-election claim to favor it. We say 'claim' because Louisiana's Mary Landrieu and others can't even get Majority Leader Harry Reid to give them a vote on the floor."

The WSJ's point about Mary Landrieu and vulnerable red state Democrats is an important one to note. Landrieu has been telling anyone who will listen how influential she is after being named Chairman of the Energy Committee, but it turns out that Landrieu isn't influential at all (though her team seems quite talented at writing strongly worded letters and press releases that Harry Reid and Barack Obama proceed to ignore). Landrieu isn't alone. The Keystone delay simply reinforces how ineffective, powerless and without influence Senators like Mark Begich, Mark Udall, Mark Pryor, Mark Warner and Kay Hagan are. Just a week prior to the President's announcement, these Senators "urged" President Obama to approve Keystone, a plea which he proceeded to blatantly and publicly ignore.

Harry Reid and Democrats tasked with holding the Senate have clearly made the political calculation that Tom Steyer's $100 million plus is absolutely needed this fall. However, the cost of that $100 million is steep, and could result in the loss of a vulnerable Democrat or two like Mary Landrieu. Think of it this way: In a state like Louisiana, six of ten voters oppose President Obama. Why would any of them vote for Mary Landrieu, who on average supports President Obama 97% of the time and is apparently utterly powerless to do anything on the rare occasion where she claims to disagree with White House policy?    

Seize the day,

Brad Dayspring
@BDayspring

Brook Hougesen
@Brook_H

2014 BATTLEGROUND SONAR

(2014) Tom Steyer's Keystone Victory
The Koch brothers may get the media attention, but the billionaire getting the most political bang for his buck is Tom Steyer. The hedge-fund politico has pledged to raise $100 million to help Democrats keep the Senate, and on Friday he received a major return on his investment when the State Department again delayed its decision on the Keystone XL pipeline...The real reason for the delay is Democratic politics. Mr. Steyer and the party's liberal financiers are climate-change absolutists who have made killing Keystone a non-negotiable demand. But the White House doesn't want to reject the pipeline before November because several Senate Democrats running for re-election claim to favor it. We say "claim" because Louisiana's Mary Landrieu and others can't even get Majority Leader Harry Reid to give them a vote on the floor.

(COLORADO) Stu Rothenberg on CNN: I think probably Udall loses in Colorado in a race that three months ago was off the table.

(IOWA) Trial Lawyers Lobby Earmarks Secret Money to Save Bruce Braley After Insulting Farmer Comments
The trial lawyers’ lobby made big donations to a political action committee that aired TV ads in Iowa defending trial-lawyer-turned-politician Bruce Braley after his much-buzzed-about farmer gaffe. ...he lawyers gave their second $100,000 donation of the quarter on March 27. That was two days after a videotape surfaced on March 25 that showed Braley telling a room full of Texas lawyers at a campaign fundraising event that he’d be their “voice,” and that they should take care not to let the GOP win the majority in the U.S. Senate because “a farmer from Iowa without a law degree” — Republican U.S. Sen. Chuck Grassley — would become chairman of the Judiciary Committee. On April 4, Senate Majority PAC reserved air time in Iowa — the buy was about $210,000, a spokesman told reporters — and on April 7 began running a TV ad defending Braley regarding farmers. ..Brad Dayspring, a strategist with the National Senatorial Campaign Committee, wonders if anyone with the Braley campaign asked the American Association for Justice PAC to make a donation or do something to help defend Braley in the wake of the farmer flap. That kind of coordination is prohibited. “The trial lawyers lobby is secretly behind ads trying to explain away Braley’s elitist, anti-farmer comments, and now it appears he owes Iowans yet another explanation,” Dayspring said.

(ALASKA) No friends to oil and gas: More proof that production isn’t a priority for Obama administration
More evidence came out Friday that President Obama and his administration aren’t big fans of oil and natural gas development. It came in the form of an indefinite delay in a decision from the State Department regarding approval of the Keystone XL pipeline, which would allow oil from the tar sands in Alberta, Canada, to be delivered to Gulf Coast ports and would create numerous jobs in the U.S...People in oil-producing states such as Alaska have long been suspect of this administration, which through this latest action on Keystone shows it isn’t terribly interested in pressing hard on oil and gas development.

(ARKANSAS) Tom Cotton Ad: "At Ease"

(LOUISIANA) Poll on U.S. Senate race shows Cassidy defeating Landrieu in potential runoff
According to a survey conducted by Harper Polling, incumbent Sen. Mary Landrieu would lose to Republican Congressman Bill Cassidy in a runoff. "It appears that Landrieu is in for the race of her life," says UL-Lafayette Political Science Professor Pearson Cross. "Perhaps for the first time she is entering the home stretch as a definite underdog."

(NORTH CAROLINA) Harry Reid Meddling in GOP Primary to Save Kay Hagan
Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid has gone to meddling in next month's North Carolina Republican Senate primary. The Senate Majority PAC, which is closely associated with Reid, last week began a $1 million TV ad campaign against state House Speaker Thom Tillis in what is likely an effort to influence the outcome of the May 6 GOP primary. The ad is designed to help Democratic Sen. Kay Hagan by wounding or defeating Tillis --- forcing him into a runoff if he fails to win 40 percent. Tillis is seen by both Democrats and Republicans in Washington as the strongest potential challenger to Hagan. The Democrats, although they deny it, seem to be following the playbook they used to help re-elect Democratic Sen. Claire McCaskill of Missouri, who like Hagan was regarded as a vulnerable Democratic incumbent in a swing state in 2012. McCaskill's media consultant was Dixon/Davis Media Group. DDMG is also Hagan's media consultant this year, as it was in 2008 when she was first elected. ...right now, the Democrats have made it pretty clear whom they don't want to face --- Tillis.

(MISSISSIPPI) Who had the worst week in Washington? Mississippi Senate candidate Chris McDaniel
McDaniel spent much of this past week trying to explain away things he said while hosting a conservative talk-radio show in the mid-2000s — things that don’t sound so good coming out of the mouth of someone who wants to be in the U.S. Senate. Candidate McDaniel’s defense? “Thousands of hours of radio clips and this is what we’re bringing up?” he asked the Associated Press in a telephone interview. “Are you serious?” Um, yes. Welcome to the big leagues. And with numbers out this past week showing that Cochran outraised him three to one in the first quarter, it appears McDaniel may not be ready to play.

(OREGON) GOP making bold play for US Senate seat in Oregon 
The rollout of the law in Oregon has been worse than in most other states, and Republicans are hoping a doctor has the credibility to capitalize on the resulting voter discontent. "Doctors are trained differently," Wehby said in a recent candidate forum at a Republican women's club in Lake Oswego, a well-to-do Portland suburb. "We know how to look at things logically, not ideologically, and we also know how to work with other people."

(VIRGINIA) GOP memo suggests optimism on Va. Senate race
A memo released today by the National Republican Senatorial Committee political director suggests optimism about the party’s chances against Democratic U.S. Senator Mark Warner in November. The memo from Ward Baker, obtained by CNN, says that likely Republican challenger Ed Gillespie raised $2.2 million in his first quarter in the race, and has nearly $2 million on hand. It says Warner has $8.8 million on hand.

(KENTUCKY) MSNBC: Grimes In #KYSen Twisting In The Wind On Keystone

(NEW HAMPSHIRE) Downhill: Obamacare vs. ski areas
Kaiser Health News reported that Obamacare had prevented many ski resort employees from buying the lower-cost basic coverage they used to get: "The ACA sets minimum benefit levels for health policies, meaning the skimpier coverage people purchased in the past is no longer available." Obamacare already encourages ski resort employees to move elsewhere in the off season to find affordable health insurance. Now it might shorten seasons for smaller ski areas that cannot afford the mandated coverage for seasonal employees.

POLLING BRIEF

Rasmussen Reports - April 19-20, 2014

  • Fifty-one percent (51%) continue to hold an unfavorable opinion of it, according to the latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey.
  • Forty-five percent (45%) of Likely U.S. Voters view the health care law at least somewhat favorably.
  • This includes 21% with a Very Favorable view and 38% with a Very Unfavorable one.

ON THE TWITTERS

@EdRogersDC - Important Senate race to watch. If Dr Wehby wins in Oregon, GOP has a superstar in the new Senate majority.  http://bit.ly/1njQOUe

@KevinMaddenDC - Obama yesterday: "investing in infrastructure would improve our economy for the long term." Today: delays Keystone pipeline.

@elliosch - North Carolina Hospital Cuts Pay For Nurses Due To ObamaCare #ncsen http://youtu.be/5mmEeIg_OSU

@COpeakpolitics - SNOB ALERT: Mark Udall Snubs Greeley Residents http://bit.ly/1eIIydJ  #copolitics #energy #jobs

@foxnewspolitics - David Axelrod: 'Angry' ObamaCare opponents are 'more mobilized' for the 2014 elections http://fxn.ws/1mrtJfP

SCOOBY SNACKS

WINNING: Boston Marathon survivor who lost a leg as a spectator will run the race this year with a prosthetic limb

WAPOST Reports that NBC Hired Psychological Consultant to Evaluate David Gregory

NEVER, EVER, EVER GETTING BACK TOGETHER: Taylor Swift Hires New Publicist 

Man Pretty Sure He Found the Loch Ness Monster in Apple Maps

Kraft Recalls 96,000 Pounds of Hot Dogs

San Antonio police investigate photo of officer texting on motorcycle

Jesus Showed Up At Yesterday's Red Wings-Bruins Game

Drunken Murfreesboro Arrested for Mowing Someone Else's Yard

BAD 1st DATE: New Jersey man returns dog, television he stole from woman on their first date

What’s This? Oh Nothing, Just a Llama Frolicking to DMX

 

 

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