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January 31, 2014

Good morning folks,

No public events for President Obama after a post-SOTU barnstorming tour through Maryland, Pittsburgh, Milwaukee and Nashville... a total Senate campaign free zone.  The President, of course, has an average 36% approval rating in key 2014 battleground states and just 30 percent of Americans agree with President Barack Obama’s push to go around Congress unilaterally, according to a CNN poll taken this week. 

To see how bad it's gotten for Democrats and President Obama, one need look no further than Harry Reid.  On Tuesday. Reid sat with Dana Bash and gushed about President Obama, promising that vulnerable Senate Democrats and candidates would certainly campaign with him. "People love this man," Reid swooned. We're going to guess some of Reid's colleagues told him to shut up, since just two days later he had dramatically changed his tone. Asked whether vulnerable Democrats would campaign with Obama, Reid backtracked. "That's up to individual Senators. I can't tell them who to ask to campaign for them, that's up to them."   Someone sure got muzzled! 

There's a reason for that.  As Reuters reports, "Spooked by President Barack Obama's low approval ratings... I what amounts to a survival-first strategy among embattled Democrats crucial to the party's effort to keep control of the Senate, some candidates in conservative states Obama lost in 2012 are aggressively criticizing his healthcare, energy and regulatory policies. The group includes three incumbent senators, Mary Landrieu of Louisiana, Mark Pryor of Arkansas and Mark Begich of Alaska, as well as Natalie Tennant, who is seeking to replace retiring Democratic Senator Jay Rockefeller of West Virginia. Democratic Senator Kay Hagan of North Carolina recently passed on a chance to appear publicly with Obama, saying she had another commitment. Begich and another Democrat up for re-election, Mark Udall of Colorado, have expressed skepticism about the idea of campaigning with the president.  Each of the Democratic senators is facing persistent criticism from Republicans who cast them as rubber stamps for parts of Obama's agenda that are particularly unpopular in their states."  

There is the politically fatal blow to these vulnerable Democrats.  They have been rubber stamps for the Obama agenda - in states where the President's approval is 36%.  Take a look at the percentage that each Senator voted with Obama, followed by Obama's current approval rating in that state:

  1. Mark Begich, Alaska: Votes with Obama 94%, Obama approval in AK 40%. 
  2. Mark Pryor, Arkansas: Votes with Obama 93%, Obama approval in AR 36%.
  3. Mark Udall, Colorado: Votes with Obama 96%, Obama approval in CO 39%.
  4. Bruce Braley, Iowa: Votes with Obama 87%, Obama approval in IA 39% (Braley has actually voted to the left of Obama on major issues, resulting in his lower voting percentage. Aka, on the liberal meter, it would be a 107%).
  5. Mary Landrieu, Louisiana: Votes with Obama 95%, Obama approval in LA 38%.
  6. Gary Peters, Michigan: Votes with Obama 88%, Obama approval in MI 39%.
  7. Kay Hagan, North Carolina: Votes with Obama 94%, Obama approval in NC 40%.
  8. Jeanne Shaheen, New Hampshire: Votes with Obama 98%, Obama approval in NH 33%.
  9. Jeff Merkley, Oregon: Votes with Obama 95%, Obama approval in OR 44%.
  10. Mark Warner, Virginia: Votes with Obama 97%, Obama approval in VA 42%.

This leaves off Georgia (Obama approval 42%), Kentucky (34%), Montana (34%), South Dakota (32%), and West Virginia (25%).

Rubber stamps - all of them. No wonder Chuck Schumer is working hard on keeping the President busy in Milwaukee, Maryland and Pittsburgh.  

Seize the day - Enjoy the weekend,

Brad Dayspring
@BDayspring

Brook Hougesen
@Brook_H

2014 BATTLEGROUND SONAR

(2014) POLITICO Morning Score: NRSC first look: All Four States On Obama’s Post-SOTU State Tour Have One Thing In Common
The National Republican Senatorial Committee looks this morning at Obama’s approval rating in key Senate swing states for this year—complete with an Obama/Chuck Schumer comic strip: http://bit.ly/1ekRh3a

(COLORADO) What Udall Didn’t Say Said Volumes
Senator Mark Udall is not having a good week. The DORA investigation is gaining new steam, his son made headlines for the exact wrong reasons and CNN helped him give his political opponents a late Christmas present. If you missed it, a CNN reporter interviewed Udall during its coverage of the State of the Union address. At the end of the interview, the CNN reporter asked Udall if the President would be joining him while campaigning in Colorado.

(LOUISIANA) Cassidy leads Mary Landrieu in 2014 Senate race
A national polling firm says incumbent Sen. Mary Landrieu, D-La., is slightly behind her most formidable Republican challenger, Baton Rouge Congressman Bill Cassidy, in a head-to-head competition for her seat this November. Rasmussen Reports said Cassidy had 44 percent support to Landrieu's 40 percent support in a recent telephone survey of 500 likely Louisiana voters conducted Jan. 28-29. But the firm has overestimated the strength of Republican candidates in previous elections, according to analyses done by Nate Silver, a well-known statistician who has examined election polling accuracy.

  • NY TIMES: SHOT: In an interview, [Landrieu] played down the political threat of the health care law. “My opponents take a great risk with that, because I think voters really understand that to have a strong work force you have to have a healthy work force” she said. 
    CHASER: “The name’s not bad,” Arnold Smith, a 78-year-old oil field driller, said of the Landrieus. But this time he is looking outside the family. “It’s Obamacare,” he explained.

(NEW HAMPSHIRE) New Hampshire Poll: Shaheen, Brown Tied
A poll of New Hampshire voters from Purple Strategies shows how the various potential presidential candidates are faring two years before the traditional first primary. But of more immediate concern is the 2014 race for the U.S. Senate there, where Democrat incumbent Jeanne Shaheen is tied at 44 percent support with a potential Republican challenger, former Massachusetts senator Scott Brown.

(MONTANA) Walsh’s actions, Army Standards of Conduct are a big deal
I am writing in regard to reports concerning adverse U.S. Army actions toward U.S. Senate candidate John Walsh while he served as head of the Montana Army National Guard (MARNG). My perspective is that of a former U.S. Army colonel now in private business in Missoula. I am a political agnostic whose sympathies hew closely to the dying Mercutio’s curse in “Romeo and Juliet” – “A plague on both your houses.” My views are my own. Walsh and his backers are trying to inoculate him against political damage by portraying the Army’s investigation and the reprimand Walsh received as Montana’s Adjutant General as “no big deal.” Do not buy it.

(KENTUCKY) EXCLUSIVE-MITCH MCCONNELL: OBAMA, IRS FIGHT TO KEEP CONSERVATIVE NONPROFITS FROM FORMING
James Madison had it exactly right. Referring to infringements on our freedoms, the Father of the Bill of Rights once wrote that such encroachments were more often "gradual and silent" than "violent and sudden." That's exactly what we're seeing with President Obama's proposed regulation on so-called 501(c)(4) groups: a stealth attempt to stifle the ability of ordinary Americans to participate in the political process. The administration's proposal, quietly floated over Thanksgiving, is just the latest in a long line of attempts to skirt the Supreme Court's 2010 ruling in Citizens United, which basically said that businesses and independent groups have the same right to free speech under the First Amendment as anybody else.

POLLING BRIEF

USA Today - PEW Research: January 15-19 

  • About half of Americans (52%) say the U.S. has mostly failed to achieve its goals in Afghanistan while 38% say it has mostly succeeded.
  • About half (51%) say the decision to use military force was the right one in Afghanistan while 41% say it was the wrong decision
  • 52% say the United States has mostly failed in reaching its goals in Iraq, while 37% say it has mostly succeeded.
  • 50% say it was wrong to use force in Iraq, while 38% support the decision to go to war.
  • Views of the success of the Iraq war differ little across party lines. More Republicans say the U.S. has mostly failed than mostly succeeded in achieving its goals in Iraq by a 51%-36% margin; Democrats (54%-37%) and independents (53%-38%) hold this view by similar margins.

ON THE TWITTERS

@Team_Mitch - .@BarackObama's #IRS is doubling down on targeting conservatives! RETWEET & WATCH: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VV-0WcPGml0

@FreeBeacon - VIDEO: NBC's Chuck Todd: 'Numbers don't add up' for Landrieu anymore. http://bit.ly/1fDqe1o

@petesnyder - There's a storm brewing in #VA - I'm proud to endorse + 100% behind @EdWGillespie for Senate. youtu.be/en45V2Q6ws0

@KevinMcLaughlin - Honored to have @AHMalcolm as our guest on this week's @NRSC Six in '14 podcast. Listen here: http://bit.ly/MmFJ50… #GOP14

@AFP - A fox strolls past the National Gallery of Art on the National Mall in Washington, DC pic.twitter.com/llGgCUwXon

NATIONAL RADAR

(THE BLAZE) "Not Very Serious" - Obama Taunts Those Questioning His Imperial Approach
Republicans, such as Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas), calling his presidency an “imperial” one." “Well, I don’t think that’s very serious,” Obama said, according to a rush transcript of the interview obtained by TheBlaze. “I mean, the truth of the matter is, is that every president engages in executive actions. In fact, we’ve been very disciplined and sparing in terms of the executive actions that we have taken. Uh, we make sure that we’re doing it within the authority that we have under statute.”  “The Stop Act is not something you take seriously?” Tapper asked, referencing Rep. Tom Price’s (R-Ga.) resolution aimed at reigning in his power. “I am not particularly worried about it,” Obama answered.

(CNN) Keystone pipeline impact study expected Friday
The results of an environmental impact study into the Keystone XL pipeline project will be announced Friday afternoon, two senior administration officials and another source familiar with the timing told CNN. The sources were not authorized to speak on the record. "The (study) is in the final stages of preparation and we anticipate a release of the document soon," a State Department spokesperson told CNN. "As a reminder when it is released, (the study) is not a decision, but another step in the process prescribed by the Executive Order" from the President. What environmentalists and industry observers alike will be looking for is whether the study determines the project would be "carbon neutral." If it does, it's widely expected that the pipeline will ultimately win approval. Still, the process is far from over.

(POLITICO) Obama’s power play
In an FDA office building in suburban Maryland, the bureaucrats gather over coffee to draft rules meant to squeeze the trans fat out of snack foods. Four blocks from the White House, in an EPA conference room: more bureaucrats, more meetings, more drafting of rules, these aimed at forcing industrialists to spend billions cutting carbon to fend off global warming. Congress? Who needs Congress?

(WASHINGTON POST) On fiscal issues, silence
One way to think about the State of the Union is to examine the depressing catalogue of last year’s unfinished business — reforming immigration, repairing crumbling infrastructure, expanding early childhood education. This list resembles New Year’s resolutions dutifully dusted off every Jan. 1 — Lose weight! Get organized! — but never achieved. Another approach is to focus on items that fade or silently disappear from the “to do” list. This enterprise is even more depressing. The resolution to shed pounds bespeaks some lingering hope and determination. One understandable example is reducing gun violence, which dwindled from an impassioned “this time is different” peroration to a check-the-box sentence.

(BOSTON GLOBE) Uninsured left without health coverage despite paying state
Hannah Orestis has no health coverage, despite her best efforts. The 27-year-old nurse from Marlborough selected a plan that was supposed to start in January through the Massachusetts Health Connector Authority, which runs the state’s insurance marketplace. She mailed a check Dec. 24, but it was never cashed. Orestis has spent hours on the phone with state customer service representatives trying to find out what happened and how to fix it. She said she has been told repeatedly to expect a call from a supervisor that never comes. She has asked for help from the governor’s office, with little effect.

SCOOBY SNACKS

Map: How Much Snow It Typically Takes to Cancel School in Your State

Dear America, I Saw You Naked - . Confessions of an ex-TSA agent.

149 years ago, Congress passed the 13th Amendment, abolishing slavery and submitted it to the states for ratification.

Happy Birthday: In 1919, Jackie Robinson was born

Mayonnaise Dethrones Ketchup as Most Popular Condiment

MÖTLEY CRÜE Announces 'The Final Tour' Details

Laugh of the Day:  Phil Griffin Says MSNBC ‘Has Never Had an Ideology’

RIP Colonel Meow: Rest in Purrs

Snowy owl hit by bus in downtown D.C.

Scientists are onto your passive aggressive emoticon use at work

 

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