MEMORANDUM
TO: Interested Parties
FROM: Ward Baker, NRSC Political Director
RE: Q1 Closed, Republicans Start 2014 in Impressive Fashion
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As you may have heard, Republicans started the first quarter of 2014 in impressive fashion, maintaining our edge to retake the Senate. However, with seven months to go Republican campaigns across the country are keeping their eye on the ball and are not only stepping up their fundraising efforts, but are also outworking their Democratic counterparts.
Last month the Cook Political Report moved four DEM-held states in our direction. New Hampshire went from Likely D to Lean D, and North Carolina, Alaska, and Louisiana are now considered Toss Ups (joining Arkansas and Michigan in that column). This brings the total number of seats held by DEMs that are rated as Toss Up, Lean R, or Likely R to eight.
Democrats had only four days to absorb this body blow before the next punch to the gut… Nate Silver is now forecasting that Republicans will take control of the Senate.
The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC) claims it has a plan to contest this Republican momentum. Announced in early February via the New York Times, the “Bannock Street Project” is the Democrats secret weapon. But, since that announcement, they learned that the Bannock Street Project will actually have to take place on Bannock Street in Colorado. Republicans have expanded the map to include new (and expensive) states where Democrats will now have to play defense, including Colorado, New Hampshire, Virginia, Oregon, and Minnesota. With a budget already stretched beyond breaking, Democrats now face a map where they’ll have to defend thirteen states rather than the eight from their original estimate, and they’ll have to do it with the same resources. It’s only a matter of time before they have to start diverting funds to these races, cutting off funds from their most vulnerable incumbents with approval ratings in the low thirties. As I write, Kay Hagan, Mark Pryor and Mary Landrieu are in a race to avoid being the first to be cut off.
Momentum is definitely building for a Republican Senate majority. Below is a comprehensive look at the players in each state, and how they stack up in money and support…
Open DEM Seats in Romney States…
South Dakota (Cook – Likely R): Former Governor Mike Rounds has consistently polled at over 50% in this race. Most recently he garnered 51% in February 2014 (Rasmussen), and before that he got 52% in September ’13 (Harper) and 52% in March ’13 (PPP).
Governor Rounds has also continued to consistently outraise his previous quarter, reporting over $700k for Q1. He holds no debt and has over $1million cash on hand.
In contrast, Democrat Weiland reported raising about $204,000 for Q1 and few expect him to impress. Especially since he is now promising a Constitutional amendment to limit free speech as his first act if elected.
Notably, South Dakota is missing from the list of states in which the DSCC claimed they will spend $60million dollars to win via their “Bannock Street Project.”
West Virginia (Cook – Lean R): Supposed Democratic rising-star Natalie Tennant has failed to make any headway against Republican Congresswoman Shelley Moore Capito in this race. Capito has consistently led in the polls from both the left (PPP, +14%) and the right (Rasmussen, +14%).
Rep. Capito has had another successful fundraising quarter, bringing in $817k and outraising her opponent once again. Capito now has $4.2million cash on hand.
Democrat Natalie Tennant was unable to break $800k for the quarter, and now has about $1million cash on hand according to her campaign.
This leaves Capito with a four-to-one cash advantage ($4.2m-to-$1m) that nicely compliments her double-digit polling advantage.
Montana (Cook – Lean R): Congressman Steve Daines continues to hold the reins in this race against Montana’s newest (appointed) Democratic Senator, John Walsh. Democrats had thought they scored a major coup with their “Big Sky Buyoff” (appointing Walsh to the open Senate seat on Baucus’ ambassadorial appointment), but it does not seem to have paid off.
Before this whole backroom deal came together, Daines was scoring 52% against Walsh (PPP), after he scores 51% (Rasmussen) - that’s a whole lot of effort from DEMs for no movement in the race.
Daines raised over $1.2million in Q1, and now has more than $2.2million on hand.
Walsh, despite his recent elevation in official status as a result of his appointment, fell short of the $1million mark, raising only $947k. More concerning for Democrats, his campaign had a burn rate of 72% this past quarter, leaving under $700k on hand.
DEM Incumbents in Romney States…
“At this point it has become something of a D.C. parlor game to guess which of the four – Begich, Landrieu, Hagan or Pryor – is in the most trouble. At this point, it is pretty much splitting hairs.”
- Cook Report’s Jennifer Duffy
Arkansas (Cook – Toss Up): Senator Pryor has long been considered one of the most vulnerable incumbents of the cycle, and both Democrats and Republicans have taken to the air to try to influence this race early. There has been nearly $6million of TV advertising so far from eighteen different outside groups on both sides of the aisle. And, Pryor’s campaign has gambled a lot of their resources early, putting up nearly twice the amount of TV ($1.25million) as Cotton’s campaign ($650k).
Through all of this, Cotton has either led by outside the margin of error, or been in a statistical tie with Pryor (one poll showed Pryor up 10, click here if you would like a reminder of why it is hogwash).
Rep. Tom Cotton raised $1.35million in Q1, continuing to bring in the cash needed to win. This is, in fact, the third quarter in a row that Cotton has outraised Senator Pryor.
Senator Pryor’s $1.22million from Q1 will not be enough to get him over the finish line.
Louisiana (Cook – Toss Up): Cook Political recently moved Louisiana from Lean D to Toss Up, citing poor polling which portray Landrieu’s position as being similar to Pryor “who has been in the Toss Up column for months.”
The polling on Landrieu has shown her stuck between 39% and 45%, suggesting that this race will go to a December runoff. And, in head-to-head polling with Congressman Bill Cassidy, she does not fare so well, trailing the Congressman and Doctor by four according to the most recent numbers.
Congressman Cassidy has raised $1.2million this quarter and now has over $5million cash on hand, rivaling the incumbent’s war chest.
Landrieu raised $1.8million this quarter, and has about $5million on hand.
North Carolina (Cook – Toss Up): Same story, different state. Cook Political also moved North Carolina from Lean D to Toss Up.
When even the liberal PPP, based in North Carolina, finds their own incumbent Senator trailing Republican candidates on the ballot it is time for Democrats to start worrying.
Doubly worrying for DEMs is the Thom Tillis fundraising potential for this race. Tillis nearly doubled his fundraising output this quarter, bringing in $1.3million in Q1.
Senator Hagan will certainly be well-funded thanks to the help of her liberal friends around the country ($2.8million), but it is unlikely to be enough since she is already working from a ballot deficit.
Alaska (Cook – Toss Up): Third time’s the charm… Alaska also moves into the Toss Up column. At the end of the quarter, Rasmussen found that Begich trailed one GOP challenger and tied the second, Obama is inverted on his job approval by double digits, and six-in-ten have an unfavorable view of ObamaCare.
Now, we see that Dan Sullivan is no flash in the pan. Sullivan brought in an impressive $1.3million for the quarter, closing the filing period with nearly $2million cash on hand.
This total eclipsed incumbent Senator Begich’s haul ($1million). Begich has $2.8million cash on hand, and will likely use every cent to deceive Alaska voters about his record, but he can’t hide from his near-universal support for Obama and his policies (not too popular in Alaska).
Other Open DEM Seats…
Michigan (Cook – Toss Up): Michigan has long kept Arkansas company in Cook’s Toss Up ratings column (since December ’13 to be exact). Former Secretary of State Terri Lynn Land has held consistent leads over Democratic Congressman Gary Peters in five out of the seven public polls conducted in 2014 (conducted since race earned Toss Up rating).
And, Land has outraised Peters in every quarter since joining the race. This quarter, Land brought in $1.5million.
Peters, by way of comparison, raised only $1.35million. It seems that Democrats aren’t too convinced that a candidate as liberal as Peters can win, even in a “blue” 2012 state.
This may be why the DSCC felt the need to send their Director of Campaigns from the DC office out to Michigan to take over the campaign. Or it may be this devastating ad from AFP highlighting ObamaCare’s real world impact on Michigan families. Either way, Michigan is looking up for the GOP.
Iowa (Cook – Lean D): If you haven’t yet had the chance, take a moment to watch this video of Rep. Bruce Braley express his true feelings about Iowa farmers and his perception of their inferiority to trial lawyers. For context, approximately 90% the entire land area in Iowa is farmland. There are more than 90,000 farms in the state that employ nearly 350,000 Iowans according to Iowa State University.
The blowback has been swift and severe, leading one reporter to tweet, “Bruce Braley must realize that his career in Iowa politics is finished.” Priorities for Iowa took less than 24 hours to announce a $250k ad campaign that will run for ten days hitting Braley for his remarks.
Polling in the race has consistently shown a majority of voters disapproving of the job Obama is doing as President. And, while Braley is far better known in the state than any of the GOP challengers (for now), he captures a maximum of 38% of the vote… it’s almost as if voters are looking for an alternative.
Braley has done a decent job of raising money from his trial lawyer buddies ($1.25million total for Q1), but DEMs should not be too sure that is a good thing.
Strong Republicans Expanding the Map…
Colorado: The entrance of Rep. Cory Gardner into the race immediately throws Colorado into contention. Udall’s numbers have been weak for a long time now (Quinnipiac: 45% or less on all ballots, 42% re-elect, 59% disapprove of Obama’s job performance), and Gardner is a strong candidate poised to capitalize on this opportunity.
Since Gardner’s entry into the race, three polls from across the political spectrum (Rasmussen, Harper, PPP) have shown this race as a tie.
With only one month in the Senate race in which to fundraise, Gardner’s $1.4million is all the more impressive. He now has $2.1million on hand to take his message to the voters of Colorado.
Senator Udall is certainly no fundraising slouch, bringing in over $2million for the quarter as Democrats hit the panic button. He now has $5.9million cash on hand.
New Hampshire: While the NRSC will remain neutral in the Republican primary, political observers know that Senator Scott Brown is a fundraising powerhouse with near universal name ID and credentials that prove he can represent the independent interests of the state, not be a party line vote like Shaheen.
According to one poll, Brown has a lead in the race which is outside the margin of error (49% Brown – 44% Shaheen). In a state where President Obama has only one-third of voters approving of his job performance while 57% disapprove, that has to be a concern for DEMs.
Though Brown was not an official candidate during Q1, his fundraising operations from campaigns past will likely give Democrats nightmares. Brown raised nearly $18million in his first special election victory, and over $26million for his 2012 re-election efforts.
Shaheen raised $1.5million in Q1, and has $4.35million cash on hand.
Virginia: Ed Gillespie’s decision to challenge Senator Mark Warner set this up as one of the marquee matchups of 2014. Upon jumping into the race, Ed raised over $300k in the first week, and prompted the UVA Center for Politics to downgrade their prediction of Warner’s chances.
Polling does currently give Democratic Senator Warner a lead, but more importantly, this is the type of environment that could leave him high and dry as Virginians get to know Gillespie. A majority of Virginia’s voters disapprove of Obama and disapprove of ObamaCare. Moreover, Warner is unable to break the 50% mark on the ballot.
Notably from the poll, to know Gillespie is to like him. Among those IND voters who do have an impression of him, he has a two-to-one favorable image (21% Fav – 10% Unfav).
Gillespie’s first quarter in the race saw him raise $2.2million. Keeping a low burn rate, he now has nearly $2million cash on hand.
Senator Warner brought in $2.7million in Q1, and has $8.8million cash on hand.
Oregon: The NRSC is neutral in this Republican primary. Reports across the state indicate Dr. Monica Wehby continues to astound and impress in Oregon. A pediatric neurosurgeon who has been practicing in Portland, Dr. Wehby also has nearly 30 years of experience formulating medical policy. Take a moment to watch her announcement video.
Harper Polling took a recent look at Oregon, and found Democratic Senator Jeff Merkley to be incredibly vulnerable, far more so than most suspected. Merkley is well below 50% on the ballot, his favorables are only at 39%, and a majority disapproves of the job Obama has been doing as President.
In contrast, Monica Wehby is not yet known by most of the state, but she will be. Having raised over $1 million in this race so far ($590k for Q1), Wehby has shown that she has the chops to be a serious contender. Merkley has posted a fundraising haul of only $1million for Q1, and has about $3.6million on hand. He’ll need every cent.
Minnesota: The NRSC is neutral in this Republican primary, but Mike McFadden has posted another successful fundraising quarter, bringing in $600k in Q1 and has $1.8million cash on hand, setting himself up to make a run at the incumbent. A longtime proponent of educational improvement and attainment in Minnesota, he aims to bring his business and community acumen to Washington in the next Congress. Any incumbent who won their seat with only 42% of the vote should be concerned about a well-financed challenger with a record of accomplishment.
Recent polls have shown that President Obama’s approval rating in this state is in the mid-thirties, yet Al Franken, has voted with him 100% of the time. Perhaps that is a reason why polling has shown that Franken is indeed vulnerable.
Franken raised $2.7million in the first quarter, but as always he burned a great deal of it. He clearly hopes he can buy this seat and has focused his efforts there, because his record isn’t going to win it for him.
BOTTOM LINE: REPUBLICANS ARE POSITIONED TO WIN THE SENATE MAJORITY IN 2014
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